Influence des paramètres géomorphologiques sur la distribution spatiale de la température de surface en milieu urbain tropical : cas de Brazzaville (2013-2022) (République du Congo) European Scientific Journal ESJ 2026

https://www.academia.edu/180803020/Influence_des_param%C3%A8tres_g%C3%A9omorphologiques_sur_la_distribution_spatiale_de_la_temp%C3%A9rature_de_surface_en_milieu_urbain_tropical_cas_de_Brazzaville_2013_2022_R%C3%A9publique_du_Congo_ The rapid urban growth of cities in Central Africa is accompanied by an intensification of urban heat islands, and understanding this phenomenon requires identifying the biophysical determinants of land surface temperature (LST). While the influence of land cover on LST is well documented worldwide, the role of geomorphology remains largely unexplored, especially in cities located in the Congo Basin. This study analyzes the influence of six geomorphological parameters (elevation, slope, aspect, curvature, topographic humidity index, and distance to the river network) on the spatial distribution of LST in Brazzaville, Congo, using a diachronic approach covering the years 2013, 2018, and 2022. Using Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (30 m) data and Landsat 8 images (n = 30,724 points), the analysis combines Pearson correlations, multiple linear regression (OLS), Moran’s I spatial autocorrelation test on the residuals, and geographically weighted regression (GWR). The results show that all variables are significantly correlated with LST (p < 0.001). Slope exhibits the most dynamic relationship, as its cooling effect increased markedly between 2013 and 2022 (OLS coefficient from -0.150 to -0.195, a 30% increase). The overall OLS models, although all significant, explain only about 19% of the variance in the LST. The strong spatial autocorrelation of the residuals (Moran’s I ≈ 0.83–0.87) reveals marked spatial non-stationarity, confirmed by the GWR, which significantly improves the fit (R² ≈ 0.84–0.88) and highlights a local reversal of the slope effect depending on the topographic and urbanization context (coefficient ranging from -0.749 to +0.754). These results demonstrate that geomorphology is a structuring and evolving determinant of the urban thermal structure, independent of land use, and support its integration into urban planning and climate adaptation documents in Brazzaville.