Written by Nirupama Subramanian |Published: May 18, 2019 3:06:27 am
The Unmaking of Peace
The ceasefire violations across the LoC between India and Pakistan and the seeds of conflict they contain
Line on Fire: Ceasefire Violations and India-Pakistan Escalation Dynamics
Happymon Jacob
Oxford University Press
432 pages
Rs 995
Happymon Jacob
Oxford University Press
432 pages
Rs 995
The theme of Happymon Jacob’s Line on Fire: Ceasefire Violations and India-Pakistan Escalation Dynamics is that both sides should be doing something to address ceasefire violations on the Line of Control (and the international border in Jammu), because these incidents have the potential to become something bigger, even if not an all out nuclear war.
“The very fact that land grabs and surgical strikes have taken place [under the ambit of CFVs] in the past leading to major standoffs between the two countries… goes to show that it is both analytically and policy-wise imprudent to leave out CFVs from the escalation ladder. The argument is not that CFVs by themselves could trigger a nuclear crisis — to argue that would be preposterous — but rather that a standoff or crisis prompted by CFVs could soon be overtaken by higher military and political factors and lead up to a major crisis…,” he writes.
It is not a popular view. In India, cross-border terrorism is seen as the main cause of escalation (this is exactly how it played out after the Pulwama attack, or after Uri) while Pakistanis skip the terrorism, and start from India’s response to it as the main escalatory trigger. As for CFVs, one popular view among policymakers on both sides is that they are a low-cost way for Pakistan and India to let off steam against each other and play their part in preventing an all out “aar-paar ki larhai”, as civilians caught in the cross fire keep demanding. Escalation itself is seen as a carefully calibrated and deliberate decision, and that too was obvious from the Balakot strike and Pakistan’s response to it.
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